Paramount's upcoming zombie movie "World War Z" needs to be a hit.
Specifically, the Brad Pitt vehicle needs to break $400 million worldwide to cover a huge and expanding budget, plus marketing and advertising, according to a worrying cover story in Vanity Fair.
Vanity Fair contributor Laura M. Holson says the film suffered from poor communication between producers and director Marc Foster ("Quantum of Solace"), budget overages from the moment filming began, delays, and a lack of a clear ending when shooting started.
After getting ABC's "Lost" screenwriter Damon Lindelof to review the film, production threw out an expensive 12-minute ending to reshoot an additional 30-40 minutes of the film that would need to be completed in three weeks time.
Paramount paid $1 million to win the rights to Max Brooks' 2006 apocalyptic novel, "World War Z," according to Vanity Fair. Since then, Paramount told the magazine the budget for the film which started at $150 million has at least ballooned to $170 million. It cites other rival film studios claiming the budget has inflated anywhere from $210 to $250 million.
If that's true, it wouldn't only make the film one of the most expensive zombie movies ever made, but also one of the priciest films to hit theaters.
Can it break $400 million and avoid being a flop? It's certainly possible, as 18 movies earned more in 2012.
It could be a stretch; however, considering the type of movie. The highest-grossing zombie movies ever were "Hotel Transylvania" at $347 million (if you call that a zombie movie), followed by "Resident Evil: Afterlife" at $296 million and "Warm Bodies" at $117 million, according to Box Office Mojo.
What went wrong
Let's start with the inexperienced crew.
Vanity Fair suggests that Pitt got able to work on his passion project at Paramount was because he's friends with Paramount Pictures chairman and chief executive, Brad Grey, who co-founded Pitt's production company.
"World War Z" will be Pitt's first time as both producer and star of a film. His previous credits as a producer include 2011's "Moneyball" and Oscar-nominated "The Tree of Life." At Paramount, Pitt produced "Eat Pray Love" starring Julia Roberts which earned $204 million worldwide.
Director Marc Foster ("Monsters Ball," "Finding Neverland") has one action flick under his belt, 2008's James Bond sequel "Quantum of Solace." While the film had monetary box office appeal earning $586 million at theaters, it received a lot of backlash from fans and critics alike.
Grey acknowledged Foster's limited experience in blockbuster films, and Paramount answered by hiring an experienced crew to work with them and to more or less experiment with "World War Z."
There are also the concerns about straying from the source material.
One of the main reasons people are so hyped for "World War Z" is because it's based on Max Brooks' 2006 novel. When it became clear that the film would make some major changes, however, it was a massive letdown to fans.
Brad Pitt admits that the novel was changed more than originally intended.
"When we started working on the script, a lot of that stuff had to fall away for the story to come together," Pitt told Lindelof.
Contrino doesn't think this will affect the box office draw at all, citing other films that have strayed from source material including Harry Potter. That's assuming the adaptation is done well.
"If the filmmakers have abandoned logic for the sake of cool visuals, an essential aspect of this potential franchise will be short-changed, and the movie may not do as well," says Gomez.
Finally, Pitt's theater appeal may be fading, with his last film, "Killing Them Softly," earning only $6.8 million on opening weekend in Fall 2012. He hasn't had a big hit at theaters since 2009's "Inglorious Basterds" and that earned $321 million worldwide.
The only Pitt films ever to gross more than $400 million worldwide are "Mr. and Mrs. Smith" ($478 million) and "Ocean's Eleven" ($450 million).
Avoiding a disaster
Two industry insiders compare "World War Z" optimistically to another apocalyptic film: 2007's "I Am Legend" featuring Will Smith.
Business Insider spoke with Jeff Gomez, CEO of Starlight Runner Entertainment, and Phil Contrino, Vice President and Chief Analyst of BoxOffice.com, to discuss the projections for Paramount's zombie thriller.
Contrino says a big budget is a tough hurdle for any movie to overcome, especially one that's not part of an established franchise, but it's not the end for Pitt's zombie film.
"I think $120 million to $150 million here is a very possible goal for "World War Z," says Contrino. "It's a kind of movie that people really respond to. I think people are missing the comparison to 'I Am Legend,' another zombie movie that was extremely successful."
(Technically "I Am Legend" was a vampire movie, which is why Box Office Mojo doesn't list it in the same category as zombie-based "World War Z.")
Gomez's Starlight Entertainment is tracking the film to draw similar numbers to "I Am Legend," noting Brad Pitt's universal appeal should also help the film at the box office.
"We don't think it will be a disaster, because Brad Pitt is a huge draw internationally and the film's spectacle and PG-13 rating will cross demos," Jeff Gomez, CEO of Starlight Runner Entertainment tells Business Insider. "If the film doesn't gel from a narrative standpoint, or gets a negative response through social media on the first weekend in the States, we still see it doing comparable box office to "I Am Legend."
Right now, BoxOffice.com is tracking the film to earn $40 million opening weekend and $105 million domestically.
"If this movie doesn't hit $100 million domestic, then it's in a lot of trouble. It needs to at least do that," says Contrino. "It would be a bad sign for overseas [earnings] as well. $100 million would be a definite disappointment for something like this."
He's not too worried about production troubles either.
"The trickle-down effect from that story [Vanity Fair] can be potentially harmful," says Contrino. "It's not the kind of publicity you want before you open a movie, but I think often too much is made over a movie going over budget and the release date being pushed back. That kind of stuff happens more often than you know about."
One recent example to look at is "Men in Black III." Sony's third film in the franchise suffered from multiple delays, rewrites, and a demanding Will Smith who reportedly had a $9,000 per month trailer for the film.
The film cost a whopping estimated $250 million to produce. Granted, "MIB3" was a sequel; however, it went on to become one of the most successful movies of 2012 scoring $624 million worldwide.
"Just because those things happen to a movie, doesn't mean it's going to be a disaster," says Contrino. "If they [Paramount] already spent that much on the production side, they're not just going to sit back. Expect a huge marketing push to try and salvage some profitability."
We still have more than a month until "World War Z" hits theaters June 14.
For now, check out the latest trailer:
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