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Here's Why The World Will Be Watching Tomorrow's Pussy Riot Trial Verdict

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Pussy Riot Trial

Tomorrow at 3pm Moscow Time (8am EST), the court in Russia's Pussy Riot trial is due to

If found guilty of "hooliganism" and inciting religious hatred Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, Maria Alekhina and Yekaterina Samutsevich could potentially face seven years in jail.

The defendants were arrested in February after playing their anti-Putin "punk prayer" in a Russian Orthodox Church. Seven years certainly a tough jail term for playing one song, no matter what the venue, and the trial has attracted international attention. Rock royalty like Sir Paul McCartney and Madonna have voiced their support for the group, and translations of the trio's inspirational closing statements have gone viral in English language press. New York City will see a public reading of the statements tonight featuring film star Chloe Sevigny and others (More information on that event here) and international protests are planned tomorrow.

Pussy Riot's fame is remarkable. When they were arrested in February, few in the West had heard of them. They were only a small part of the anti-Putin protests that had erupted after the Duma elections in December, and those protests had largely dropped from international attention after Vladimir Putin was reelected as President in March.

However, when the rest of the protests dimmed, the spotlight began to shine on Pussy Riot. There's a few reasons for this — the provocative, performance-art esque video of the band singing (while wearing their trademark balaclavas) or the fact they are young women (two with young children) no doubt helped. Additionally, the fact that the case dragged on for so long (the performance itself was held almost six months ago, remember) that the the world had time to notice the trial and get up to speed on the case.

This international pressure seems to have had some effect. Prosecutors are now asking for three years in prison for the performers rather than seven, and Putin himself has made comments that seem to call for leniency.

However, the outcome of the trial will probably say a lot about the future of Russia and the Russian opposition. The Russian government was relatively light on dissent during the protests this winter, but there have been signs that they are beginning to clamp down (the most prominent leader of the opposition movement, Aleksei Navalny, was charged in a long-dead corruption trial last month). Observers can't tell if international pressure will cause the government to buckle or will he become doubly-determined?

There is one clear precedent for Pussy Riot, and it's worrying. The trial is being held in the same courtroom as the trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Yukos oil oligarch who was arrested in 2003. Khordorkovsky was once the richest man in Russia, and his arrest was international news. Despite that, he has languished in prison for almost 10 years.

Khodorkovsky was charged with fraud and tax evasion, but the consensus is that his real crime was angering Putin. Pussy Riot have not only insulted Putin, but they've also revealed the hypocrisy of the increasingly influential (and corrupt) Russian Orthodox Church (for more on that, check out this London Review of Books article).

Earlier this month, Khodorkovsky released a statement on the trial. It began:

It is painful to watch what is taking place in the Khamovnichesky Court of the city of Moscow, where Masha, Nadya, and Katya are on trial. The word “trial” is applicable here only in the sense in which it was used by the Inquisitors of the Middle Ages.

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